U.S. imports of consumer goods surged 8% higher in January, in part due to continued consumer confidence, as outlined in Panjiva research of February 8. That confidence also appears to have spread to discretionary spending such as spring holiday gifts. That can be seen in imports of Valentine’s day merchandise, which climbed 14.7% in the five months to January 31 on a year earlier, Panjiva data shows.

Shipments of toys (stuffed bears and hearts and other such fripperies) were unchanged on a year earlier, while imports of decorations and other products having risen 30.8%. Valentine’s products, particularly those shipped in December and January, are also often shipped with easter holiday merchandise, so the data may also signal expectations of stronger spending over the coming month too.

Chart segments U.S. imports of “Valentine” merchandise by product (HS-4). Source: Panjiva

The giving of candy – particularly chocolate – at both Valentine’s and Easter may also be picking up. While imports of processed chocolates only climbed 3.3% in 2017 in dollar terms, shipments of premium products from Germany and Belgium climbed 16.0% and 13.9% respectively. Imports in January meanwhile have expanded by 8.6%. Admittedly though the peak in imports is ahead of the winter rather than spring holidays.

Chart shows seaborne imports of processed chocolate (HS 1806). Source: Panjiva

A pickup in American-made chocolate also looks likely with imports of cocoa having risen 10.9% in 2017 (despite a 29.1% slowdown in the fourth quarter) and potentially by a further 24.6% in January alone.

Chart shows U.S. imports of cocoa products, excluding processed chocolate, on a monthly (dotted) and 12 month average (solid) basis. Most recent month based on seaborne data only. Source: Panjiva