One consequence of the U.S. government’s new “national security” tariffs on steel and aluminum, outlined in Panjiva research of March 9, may be a diversion of volumes from supplier countries to other markets. That in turn could lead those markets to erect new trade barriers. Early signs of that have led Thailand’s Commerce Ministry to consider duties on steel imports against both U.S. and Chinese suppliers among others, Nikkei reports.

Panjiva data shows Chinese exports of the steel and aluminum products covered by the U.S. review to Thailand totaled $2.69 billion in 2017 (4.6% of the total), down 4.3% vs. a year earlier. That made Thailand the fourth largest recipient of the products, and compares to shipments to the U.S. from China worth $2.87 billion (up 24.1% on a year earlier).

Chart segments Chinese exports of steel and aluminum products covered by the U.S. section 232 reviews by destination market. Source: Panjiva

At the product level supplies to Thailand in the past year were led by flat-rolled non-alloy steel (29.5% of the total), hot-rolled coil steel (13.9%) and aluminum plate (9.4%). On the China side the most exposed provinces are Jiangsu (30.5%), Liaoning (11.1%) and Shanghai municipality (10.2%).

Chart segments Chinese exports of steel and aluminum products covered by the U.S. section 232 reviews to Thailand by product (HS-4) and province-of-origin. Source: Panjiva