Global trade activity expanded by 6% on a year earlier in February, the 25th straight month of improvement. While partly flattered by lunar new year timing in Asia, the 12 month average trade growth of 5% was the highest since November 2011. The outlook is less certain. While business sentiment globally remains positive, U.S. managers are becoming less optimistic. Risks from increased American protectionism are at an important point of inflection with a U.S. trade mission to China due this week and decisions regarding metals tariffs due shortly.